Five minutes, and the first useful answer comes in about sixty seconds. Steps 1 to 5 are free, need no wallet and no key, and are where most of the value is. Step 6 is optional and paid, and by default only runs for wallets the evidence supports.
Email and a password. You will see a short disclosure first — it is the honest version of what this does and does not do, and it is worth the two minutes. Confirm your email when the message arrives.
Open Analyse and paste any Polymarket wallet address
(0x followed by 40 characters). We read its entire settled history,
resolve every market against Polymarket’s own record, and return a verdict.
The first analysis of a wallet takes up to a minute; after that it is instant.
Polymarket trading history is public on-chain data. The wallet’s owner is not notified and cannot tell you looked.
Five things can come back. The most common is the third one.
| Edge detected | Won materially more often than the prices paid imply, by more than luck comfortably explains. Rare. |
| Ahead, but within luck | Better than their prices, but not by enough to rule out chance. Interesting, not conclusive. |
| No detectable edge | They win about as often as their prices imply — which is what paying fair value looks like. This is the usual answer, including for many wallets showing large profits. |
| Worse than their prices | Has lost to its own entry prices over a meaningful sample. |
| Not enough history | Under 30 settled markets. Nothing can honestly be concluded. |
Alongside the verdict you get the numbers behind it: markets settled, wins versus expected, the edge in standard deviations, how long their markets typically run, and whether their result survives removing their single best market.
Every figure describes the past. “Edge detected” means a record is unlikely to be luck — not that it will continue, and not that you should follow anyone. Edges fade and get competed away.
Below the search box we publish Polymarket’s most profitable traders, scored the same way. Wallets that clear the bar are marked; the rest are listed with the reason each falls short, which is usually the more instructive read.
The bar rises with the number of wallets screened. Examine forty traders at the textbook threshold and one or two clear it by chance alone — and because you sorted on the statistic they got lucky on, those are exactly the ones that float to the top. Correcting for that is the difference between a leaderboard and a slot machine. Some weeks nobody qualifies, and we say so plainly.
Add wallets to your watchlist, set your rules in Settings, and press Start. The simulator follows them with notional money against real live prices, and the Activity tab shows every trade it saw and what it decided, including why it skipped things.
Backtest does the same over history: replay a wallet’s real past through your rules and see the result, with the luck-concentration shown beside it — how much of the outcome rests on one or two markets.
Every order fills instantly, in full, at the price shown, with no spread. Real trading does none of that, and the gap is widest in exactly the thin markets where simulated returns look best. Treat it as a test of your rules, not a forecast of returns.
Finding a wallet that genuinely beats its own prices is the hard part. Once you have, you can connect a dedicated wallet and have that wallet’s trades copied automatically, sized to limits you set.
Out of the box, real orders go only to wallets that cleared the evidence bar — so you cannot end up copying an unproven one by accident or by never checking. We built the measurement before the copier.
If you have read a verdict and want to follow that wallet anyway, there is a switch in Settings to allow it. It is your money and your call; we will keep showing you what the evidence says either way.
These must all be true before a single real order is placed:
ARM to confirm. Nothing before this spends a penny.Create a wallet specifically for this, funded only with what you are prepared to lose. Never your main wallet. Your key is encrypted the instant it arrives and never shown again — but the bot must decrypt it to sign orders while you sleep, so a breach of our server could expose it. Nobody can build this feature without that being true, which is why the wallet should hold little.
Which answer applies depends on how you signed up to Polymarket, and the two cases are completely different. Check polymarket.com/settings first: if there is a Private key tab down the side, you are in the first case. If there is not, you are in the second.
1. You signed up with an email address or a social login. Polymarket made a wallet for you and holds it, so it can hand you the key.
0-9 and a-f, sometimes with 0x in
front. Both forms work here.2. You connected an existing wallet — MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet, Rainbow, a hardware wallet, anything you had already. Polymarket never had your key and cannot show it to you. It is in that wallet app, and only you can get it out. In MetaMask, for example, it is under the three dots beside the account name → Account details → Show private key. Other wallets word it similarly.
A Ledger or Trezor is built so the key can never leave it. That is the whole point of owning one, and there is no way around it. Make a separate software wallet for copying, fund it with what you can afford to lose, and leave the hardware wallet out of this entirely.
All four are rejected, and Lockstep now tells you which one you pasted rather than just saying it is wrong.
0x then 40
characters. Public, and printed all over Polymarket. The key is 64
characters and secret.8f3c1a2e-... with dashes. Lockstep
signs its own orders and has no use for it.0x there must be exactly 64.You can disarm or delete the key at any time; both stop real orders immediately. Clearing the bar is not a promise — a wallet that has beaten its prices can simply stop, and you can lose everything you commit.
Only if you deliberately turn it on, on a paid plan, for a wallet that cleared the evidence bar — and only after you connect a wallet and type ARM to confirm. By default the answer is no: analysis and simulation need no key at all, and most people never go further.
Because profit and skill are different things. Profit rewards betting big and getting lucky at long odds — in markets that pay all-or-nothing, one three-cent winner can outweigh a hundred losses. We ask instead whether they won more often than the prices they paid imply. That is the one thing stake size and long-odds luck cannot manufacture.
How far the record sits from what the wallet’s own prices predicted, measured in standard deviations. Around 0 means exactly as expected. Above 2 starts to be hard to explain by chance — and we raise that threshold when screening many wallets at once, because searching harder finds more accidents.
Yes, and it is the single most useful thing here. Nobody can judge their own record from the inside — wins are memorable and sample sizes are small. If your history is too short to judge, we will tell you that rather than guess, which is itself worth knowing.
An analysis is cached for a few hours; the screened leaderboard rescores every six. Verdicts move slowly because they are built on settled history, so a wallet rarely changes category from one day to the next.
The free plan includes five analyses in total — enough to check yourself and a couple of traders. Pro (£60/month, or £320 for six months and £570 for twelve) gives you 200 analyses a day, deeper backtesting, and copies up to ten wallets at once. Unlimited (£90/month, £480 for six months, £860 for twelve) removes the wallet cap entirely and raises the daily allowance further. The leaderboard and the simulator are on every plan, and wallets already scored stay readable whatever you are on.