This service (“the Service”) is operated by Daniel Montgomery-Smith, of 15 Treforris Road, Wallasey, Merseyside, CH45 6UP, contact hello@lockstepmarkets.com. By creating an account you agree to these Terms. If you do not agree, do not use the Service.
The Service is an analytics and information tool. It reads publicly available Polymarket trading data and reports statistical measures of a wallet’s historical record, including whether that record is distinguishable from chance. It also provides a simulator in which you may follow wallets using notional, non-monetary balances.
On a paid plan you may optionally supply the private key of a wallet you control, so that the Service can place orders on Polymarket that mirror a followed wallet. This feature is off by default and requires several deliberate steps to enable.
By default, the Service only places real orders following a wallet that has met our published statistical criteria. Trades from wallets that have not met those criteria are simulated only. You cannot copy an unproven wallet with real money by accident or by omission.
You may switch that default off in Settings, after the Service has shown you its assessment of the wallet concerned. If you do, the Service will place real orders following wallets our own analysis does not support, and you accept that you have chosen to act against that assessment. We do not withdraw or soften the assessment because you have chosen to override it.
If you enable this feature you acknowledge that: the key is encrypted at rest but must be decrypted in memory to sign orders, so a compromise of our systems could expose it; you should use a separate wallet funded only with money you can afford to lose; and you may lose the entirety of that balance. We never claim to be unable to access a key you have supplied.
We are not a broker, exchange, custodian, fund, investment manager or financial advisor. We do not hold client money: any wallet you connect remains yours, funded by you, and we cannot withdraw from it. We provide no investment, financial, legal or tax advice, and no personal recommendation. Meeting our statistical criteria is not a recommendation to follow any wallet.
Every figure the Service reports is a measurement of past, already-settled events. Statistical labels such as “Edge detected” describe how unlikely a historical record is to have arisen by chance. They are not predictions, forecasts, guarantees, or recommendations, and they carry no implication that any pattern will continue.
Statistical measurement is inherently uncertain. A wallet may satisfy our criteria and subsequently perform poorly; a wallet may fail them and subsequently perform well. Both outcomes are consistent with the method working as intended.
Simulator and backtest results assume orders fill immediately, in full, at the displayed price, with no spread, no market impact and no failed fills. Real trading meets none of those conditions. Simulated results are systematically optimistic and must not be relied on as an indication of actual or achievable returns.
Whether you trade manually or enable automated copying, every position is opened in your own wallet on Polymarket. You alone decide which wallets to follow, what limits to set, and whether to enable copying at all. You bear all risk of loss. You may lose money, including the entirety of any amount you commit.
You are responsible for determining whether trading on Polymarket, and using this Service, is lawful for you in your jurisdiction, and for complying with all applicable law, including tax obligations arising from your trading. The Service is targeted at regions where trading on Polymarket is lawful; it is not directed at, and must not be accessed from, a jurisdiction where doing so would not be.
Our analysis depends on third-party data, principally Polymarket’s public APIs. That data may be incomplete, delayed, revised or unavailable. Markets may be re-resolved or disputed after we have read them. We make no warranty as to accuracy or completeness, and we may revise any figure without notice as underlying data changes.
You must provide a valid email address and keep your credentials secure. You are responsible for activity under your account. One person, one account. You must be at least 18 years old.
Paid plans are billed in advance through Stripe. There are two paid tiers, which differ in how many wallets you may copy simultaneously. Recurring subscriptions renew until cancelled; prepaid periods do not renew and simply expire. We do not store your card details.
Cancelling. You may cancel a subscription at any time from Settings. Cancellation takes effect at the end of the period you have already paid for, and you keep full access until then; nothing further is charged. You can reverse a cancellation from the same place while the period is still running. Prepaid periods cannot be cancelled because they never renew — they simply end on their expiry date.
Refunds. We do not offer refunds for a change of mind. There is a free tier with no card required, so you can try the analysis, read a verdict and run the simulator before you pay anything. Paid plans are sold on that basis. If you no longer want a subscription, cancel it and you will not be charged again.
Two exceptions, because they are not ours to refuse. If we charge you in error, we will put it right. And if the law gives you a right to cancel that you have not validly given up, that right stands whatever this page says.
Your statutory cancellation right. Buying online as a consumer normally gives you fourteen days to change your mind. Because the Service is available to you the moment you pay, at checkout you are asked to separately confirm that you want your access to start immediately and that you understand you will lose that fourteen-day right once it does; we keep a record of that confirmation. If you would rather keep the fourteen-day right, do not give that confirmation and do not buy — use the free tier instead.
If a payment does come back — refunded in full by us, or reversed by your bank — paid access ends immediately and any remaining prepaid period is cancelled. A partial refund does not affect access.
We aim to keep the Service available but do not guarantee uninterrupted access. Analysis depends on third-party APIs that may be slow or unavailable. We may modify, suspend or discontinue any part of the Service with reasonable notice.
The Service is provided “as is” and “as available”, without warranties of any kind, to the fullest extent permitted by law. In particular we do not warrant that any statistical conclusion is correct, will remain correct, or is suitable for any purpose you have in mind.
Nothing in these Terms limits or excludes our liability for death or personal injury caused by our negligence, for fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation, or for any other liability that cannot be limited or excluded under English law.
Subject to that, our total liability to you arising out of or in connection with the Service — including liability for any statistical conclusion, label or figure we report, for the operation of the automated copying feature, or for a compromise of a key you have supplied — is limited to the greater of (a) the amount you paid us in the twelve months before the event giving rise to the claim, and (b) £100.
We are not liable for indirect or consequential loss, including loss of profits or loss of anticipated trading gains, to the extent the law allows us to exclude it. Separately, and regardless of the cap above: losses you incur from your own trading decisions, from market movements on Polymarket, from a followed wallet’s performance, or from Polymarket’s own acts or omissions are not losses we have caused, and this clause does not make us liable for them.
We store your email address, password hash, subscription status, the wallet addresses and settings you enter, and — only if you enable copying — an encrypted private key you supplied, which you can delete at any time. Wallet addresses and trading histories analysed by the Service are public blockchain data and are not personal data we have collected from you. We do not sell data. We use no third-party analytics and set no advertising cookies; the only cookie is the one that keeps you signed in.
The Service runs on a server in Mexico, and your data is therefore processed there. Mexico is not a country the UK has found to offer adequate protection, so that transfer is made under the UK International Data Transfer Addendum. The Privacy Policy sets out what this means in full.
Deleting your account. Settings has a delete option. It removes your account, your stored key, your tracked wallets, your settings and your entire simulated history, and cancels any subscription first so you cannot continue to be billed. It is immediate and irreversible; we keep no copy and cannot restore the account.
Two things are not deleted, because neither is personal data about you: the record of trades we observed from public wallets, and our cached statistical scores for those wallets. Both describe public on-chain activity by third parties and are stored against the wallet address, not against the account that looked at them. Backups are overwritten on a rolling basis and any residual copy disappears with them.
One thing about you is kept, and you should know why. If you paid, we keep the confirmation you gave at checkout that your access should start immediately — the exact wording you were shown, and the time you gave it. It is held with the payment it belongs to rather than with your account, because a payment can be disputed months after an account is closed, and that confirmation is the only record of what you agreed to. It carries no name and no email. It does carry the IP address and the browser the confirmation was given from, because a disputed payment is an argument about who agreed to what and those two facts are most of the answer. The Privacy Policy says how long that is kept and how to object to it.
Payment records are retained by Stripe, and by us where we are required to keep them for tax and accounting purposes, for as long as the law requires.
This section is a summary. The full notice — every category of data, the lawful basis for each, every supplier who sees it, how long it is kept, and your rights under UK GDPR including how to complain to the ICO — is the Privacy Policy, which forms part of these Terms.
We may update these Terms. Material changes will be notified by email and will require renewed acceptance before continued use.
These Terms, and any dispute arising out of or in connection with them, are governed by the law of England and Wales. The courts of England and Wales have jurisdiction to hear any such dispute, though as a consumer you may also be able to bring proceedings in the courts of the country you live in. If you are habitually resident somewhere other than England and Wales, this choice of law does not remove the protection given to you by any mandatory rules of the law of the country where you live.
Every account gets a referral link. If someone subscribes through yours, they get 10% off their first invoice and you earn £10.
When it is earned. On their subscription, not on their signup. An account that never pays earns you nothing, because otherwise the programme would pay for creating email addresses.
What it is worth. The amount is fixed at the moment of the sale. If we change the rate, what you have already earned is unaffected; the new rate applies to sales after the change.
When it is taken back. If the person you referred is refunded or reverses the payment, the sale was not a sale and the commission is voided. It will be shown to you as voided rather than quietly removed. Where a commission has already been paid out and the underlying payment then comes back, we may ask you to return it or set it against future earnings.
Getting paid. By bank transfer, on request, once you have at least £20 owing. We will ask for the details we need to make the payment. Payments are made in pounds sterling. You are responsible for declaring this income and for any tax on it; we do not deduct tax and we are not your employer. Nothing in this programme makes you our agent, employee or partner, and you must not describe yourself as any of those.
What is not allowed. Referring yourself, including through a second account or a variation of your own email address. Bidding on our name in paid search. Presenting the Service as your own, or making claims about it that we have not made — in particular any promise of profit. Spam, or any promotion that breaches the rules of the platform you post it on. We may void commissions, close the account, or both, where any of this happens.
Changing or ending it. We may change the rate or withdraw the programme at any time, with notice by email. Commissions already earned survive withdrawal and will be paid, subject to the minimum above.
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